Study finds El Niño events are growing stronger as the planet warms, raising stakes for weather extremes

A climate signal with global consequences

A new peer-reviewed study is adding fresh evidence to one of climate science’s most consequential questions: whether a warming planet is changing the strength of El Niño. The answer from the researchers is yes. Using coral records from the Galápagos Islands, they report that eastern Pacific El Niño events have become markedly stronger over time, with the most recent decades standing out against the last millennium of reconstructed conditions. The findings were published in Science and have already drawn attention because they arrive while a major El Niño is building in the tropical Pacific. ([apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/cf2e0bbe4b241c5ad0141ca0f93f44dd?utm_source=openai))

El Niño matters far beyond the Pacific because it can alter rainfall, temperature and storm patterns around the world. Strong episodes are associated with drought in some regions, flooding in others, heat waves, coral bleaching and strain on fisheries and agriculture. The new study does not argue that El Niño itself is a new phenomenon. Instead, it suggests that the event’s strength may now be rising in step with human-driven warming, which would help explain why recent swings have had such broad impacts. ([apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/cf2e0bbe4b241c5ad0141ca0f93f44dd?utm_source=openai))

What the study found

According to the reporting around the paper, the researchers reconstructed sea-surface temperature changes in the eastern tropical Pacific using coral skeleton chemistry from the Galápagos. They sampled both living colonies and fossil coral boulders, then used geochemical markers to infer past ocean conditions. The result was a record stretching back more than 900 years, with the authors concluding that El Niño strength in the last 40 years is higher than it was before industrial-era warming began. ([apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/cf2e0bbe4b241c5ad0141ca0f93f44dd?utm_source=openai))

The study’s headline claim is that El Niño events are more than 36% stronger than pre-industrial levels, and that there has been about a 16% increase in just the last four decades. Those figures matter because they suggest acceleration rather than a simple one-time shift. The researchers say the pattern mirrors the rise in global temperature caused by greenhouse-gas emissions, which is why they interpret the trend as linked to human activity rather than random natural variation. ([apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/cf2e0bbe4b241c5ad0141ca0f93f44dd?utm_source=openai))

The Galápagos Islands are a particularly useful place to look for this kind of signal because they sit near the eastern Pacific region where El Niño-related warming is often most pronounced. Nature’s coverage of the study notes that the islands are effectively near the ‘heart’ of El Niño, making them a strong location for reconstructing past swings. The authors also used uranium-thorium dating to place the corals in time, allowing them to compare pre-industrial and modern periods. ([nature.com](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-026-02717-9?utm_source=openai))

Why the result is controversial

The study is notable not only for its conclusions but also for the debate it has already triggered. Outside scientists cited in early coverage are split: some say the reconstruction is important and persuasive, while others say the record still leaves room for skepticism because it appears to conflict with some recent observational studies. That disagreement does not invalidate the new paper, but it does mean the result should be read as part of an active scientific discussion rather than a final verdict. ([apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/cf2e0bbe4b241c5ad0141ca0f93f44dd?utm_source=openai))

One reason the topic remains unsettled is that direct instrumental records of El Niño only extend back about 75 years. That is a short window for identifying long-term trends in a highly variable climate system. The new coral-based reconstruction attempts to solve that problem by looking further back in time, but proxy records always bring uncertainty, including questions about how well a particular coral site represents the broader Pacific. Nature and other outlets note that the authors are presenting evidence from a specific region, the eastern Pacific, not the entire global ENSO system. ([nature.com](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-026-02717-9?utm_source=openai))

Still, the broader context is consistent with climate science’s long-standing concern that a warmer ocean can change the background conditions on which El Niño develops. The study adds weight to the idea that warming is not only raising average temperatures but also altering some of the natural patterns that shape climate extremes. That matters for planners in countries vulnerable to heavy rains, drought and food-supply shocks. ([apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/9dd6ecf3b358a89d2b3a5468d69dbdbc?utm_source=openai))

Why this matters for Kenya and other vulnerable regions

For readers in Kenya, the story is relevant because El Niño is often linked in East Africa to heavier-than-normal rains and flooding risks, while broader Pacific climate shifts can also interact with regional weather systems. The new research does not predict a specific Kenyan outcome for any one season, but it reinforces the case for preparedness, especially in communities already exposed to flood damage, landslides, crop losses and disease outbreaks following intense rainfall. The practical lesson is that a stronger El Niño can raise the odds of disruptive weather well outside the Pacific basin. ([apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/cf2e0bbe4b241c5ad0141ca0f93f44dd?utm_source=openai))

That is why the paper’s implications reach beyond academic climate debates. If future El Niño events are indeed becoming more intense, governments, humanitarian agencies, farmers and city planners may need to treat them less as isolated natural fluctuations and more as climate hazards whose impacts are being amplified by a warming world. In that sense, the study is as much about risk management as it is about oceanography. ([eurekalert.org](https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1141255?utm_source=openai))

The bottom line

The new study strengthens the argument that human-caused warming is not just warming the planet in a general sense, but may also be intensifying one of its most disruptive climate patterns. The evidence comes from an unusual and carefully built coral record, and scientists will continue to test how robust the conclusion is. But the central message is clear enough: if El Niño events are growing stronger, the world should expect bigger consequences when they arrive. ([apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/cf2e0bbe4b241c5ad0141ca0f93f44dd?utm_source=openai))

Source note

This article was independently corroborated with reporting from Associated Press, Nature, EurekAlert! and Inside Climate News, along with the University of Michigan’s own summary of the research.

Sources:

• Associated Press
• Nature
• EurekAlert!
• Inside Climate News
• University of Michigan